Making waves: Romania is determined to reshape the Black Sea’s security architecture

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has thrust the Black Sea to the center of Europe’s security agenda, sharpening Romania’s long-standing concerns about Russian revisionism. Bucharest seeks to recast the region’s security architecture through deeper NATO engagement, stronger deterrence, and tighter minilateral cooperation (B9, Three Seas). Yet progress is constrained by divergent threat perceptions among littoral allies, notably Bulgaria’s ambivalence and Türkiye’s gatekeeper role under the Montreux Convention, which limits a sustained non-littoral NATO naval presence. Romania’s approach couples advocacy for greater allied deployments, ISR and coastal defense modernisation with efforts to diversify partnerships and defence production, including ties beyond NATO. The durability of this strategy hinges on continued US involvement and on Europe’s ability to expand defence capacity without diluting transatlantic cohesion. Domestic political volatility further complicates execution. Romania’s wager is that persistence can turn the Black Sea from a security gap into a pillar of a renewed Euro-Atlantic order.