Who Summons the Dragon? China’s Demand-Driven Influence in Central and Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans

This brief argues that China’s influence in Central-Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is primarily demand-driven. Rather than Beijing successfully pulling the region away from the West, domestic politics and elite preferences in CEE/WB determine when and how governments court China to signal strategic autonomy from Western partners. Empirically, Chinese economic ties remain modest relative to EU–US linkages; political influence is generally low, with notable outliers such as Hungary and Serbia where leadership choices amplify engagement. Across the region there is no stable relationship between economic exposure to China and higher-level political alignment. The 5G/Huawei cases further illustrate divergence: most states joined the US-led “Clean Network,” while a few maintained openness to Huawei. The brief recommends shifting Western policy from alarmism about China’s “supply” to mitigating domestic vulnerabilities and incentives that generate the “demand” for Chinese partnerships, including targeted counter-incentives for smaller, less-integrated economies.