Peer-Reviewed Publications
From transformation to demarcation: explaining the EU’s shifting motivations of the enlargement policy
Article, Journal of European Public Policy, 2025.
Shrouded in Secrecy. Explaining Why Some Countries Refuse to Disclose Their Military Aid to Ukraine
Protracted Transition: Civilian Control Over the Military and Intelligence in Romania
Book Chapter, Post-Communist Progress and Stagnation at 35: The Case of Romania, 2024.
Afterword: the Russo-Ukrainian war and great power competition
Book Chapter, Great Powers’ Foreign Policy, 2022.
Policy Papers (Selection)
Mai multă vizibilitate. Politica externă românească în context european și global.
Edited Volume, Fredrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2025.
Security Cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Region
Policy Report, Global Focus Center, 2024.
China’s demand-driven influence in Central-Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans: A political and economic regional comparison.
Policy Report, Global Focus Center, 2021.
Zeitenwende. Time for a Reassessment of Romania’s Foreign Policy?
Policy Report, Fredrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2021
Working Papers
Ghincea, M., Morar, Ș. & Nikolovski, I. Language Denial in International Politics: Explaining Successes and Failures. Under Review.
Why do some states succeed while others fail in foreign policy strategies that deny the existence of neighboring countries’ official languages? By analyzing two contrasting cases, Bulgaria’s unsuccessful attempt to force a change in the name of the Macedonian language and Romania’s largely successful effort to undermine the recognized status of the Moldovan language, this article identified domestic elite cohesion as the key explanatory factor. Drawing on a comparative analysis of these two dyads, we find that cohesive elites in North Macedonia resisted Bulgarian pressures, preserving the status of the Macedonian language. In contrast, Moldova’s fragmented elite structures facilitated Romania’s co-optation, ultimately leading to the abandonment of Moldovan as the name of the official language. These findings highlight the importance of domestic political cohesiveness in determining the effectiveness of language denial strategies as foreign policy tools. By illuminating the interplay between domestic politics, language policies, and foreign policy, this study contributes to broader scholarly debates on national identity, interstate relations, and the politics of official language recognition.
Ghincea, M. Triangulated Capture: EU Conditionality, Geopolitical Competition, and the Logic of State Capture. R&R in EJPR.
The Western Balkans have recently experienced a striking divergence: despite a “fundamentals-first” enlargement doctrine that elevates judicial independence and anti‐corruption safeguards, rule‐of‐law indicators have deteriorated amid a surge of unconditional finance from China, Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states. Traditional explanations, notably the stabilitocracy thesis, attribute this paradox to EU‐driven “money–power–glory” mechanisms but rest on the assumptions that the EU is the sole external principal and that its enforcement stance is immutable. This article introduces a triangulated capture model, which embeds the stabilitocracy mechanisms within a multiple‐principals bargaining framework. Incumbent elites hedge between EU rewards and rival‐patron rents, thereby lowering the costs of non‐compliance and prompting EU institutions to practice strategic forbearance. This recursive feedback loop deepens state capture. Employing Bayesian process tracing in a crucial case study, the article assesses competing hypotheses and demonstrates how geopolitical competition reshapes both domestic incentives and EU leverage, offering novel insights for enlargement policy and backsliding scholarship.
Ghincea, M. & Minatti, W. Domestic Politics and Military Aid to Ukraine: Explaining Disclosure Policies in France and Germany. Under Review.
Why have France and Germany adopted divergent — and shifting — policies on disclosing their military aid to Ukraine? We argue that domestic politics, not international signaling or political culture, best explains this puzzle. We theorize that leaders use transparency as a legitimation tool to manage audience costs when their policy preferences diverge from a hawkish public. Conversely, when leader and public preferences align, policymakers revert to strategic ambiguity. Using a most-similar comparison of France and Germany, employing qualitative Bayesian reasoning, we find strong support for our argument. Germany shifted to transparency under Chancellor Scholz following domestic pressure, a policy reversed by Chancellor Merz once preferences realigned. France maintained secrecy while elite and public opinion converged, only partially disclosing aid after domestic criticism. Our findings highlight domestic legitimation strategies in shaping foreign policy secrecy, and contribute to the literature on secrecy in foreign policy and on military assistance to Ukraine.
Ghincea, M., Invernizzi, A., Nasr, M., & Schimmelfennig, F. Crisis and Integration: How the Russo-Ukrainian War Redefined the EU’s Boundaries.
Traditionally, the crises affecting the EU have been characterized either as “failures,” where vulnerabilities in capacity and institutional design come to light, or, more recently, as “attacks,” indicating a direct assault on the Union’s foundational values and interests. However, we claim that the Russo-Ukrainian War transcends this conventional dichotomy by combining both characteristics simultaneously. On one hand, Russia’s aggression intensifies demands for moral solidarity and existential defense, reflecting collective values. On the other hand, the war highlights important capacity gaps within the EU’s energy infrastructure, defense capabilities, and enforcement of sanctions—a set of capacity shortfalls that underscore failure-type crisis characteristics. By adopting an inductive, theory-building approach, we develop a dual-path framework to explain how moral mobilization and capacity-building efforts interact in shaping the EU’s functional boundaries. While moral urgency accelerates consensus around far-reaching measures—including costly sanctions and military aid—capacity-building reforms are necessary to sustain this alignment by remedying underlying vulnerabilities. Through a detailed case study of the EU’s policy and institutional realignments in response to the war, our process tracing challenges the assumption that crises can exclusively be either failure- or attack-driven. We argue instead that some crises can simultaneously stimulate community-building while requiring tangible capacity-building. Ultimately, this article refines crisis-driven integration theories and offers insights into how external attacks can decisively affect European integration through complementary causal pathways, taking seriously the possibility of equifinality.